Why is today's world so chaotic and unpredictable?

There are times in everyone's life when everything is calm and events are predictable. However, the world around us is always susceptible to alternating instabilities with devastating consequences that affect our peaceful lives. The question that is often asked these days is whether we can predict these unstable and chaotic periods. Can we intervene in them to minimize their impact on our lives?

In this article, we want to see why the world has become so unstable in recent days and years, and why we are confronted with various events, news, and tragedies every day.

Our Chaotic World and the Reason for This Turmoil

One of the greatest human concerns is getting stuck in a particular situation and searching for a solution to get out of it. If we take a look at the news and the world around us, it seems like something from the outside has turned the whole world upside down. A global pandemic changes everything, millions of people die, and all countries are forced to quarantine their citizens.

Immediately after that, the chaos of an economic crisis emerges. Inflation increases and economic recession often worsens people's livelihoods. Countries attack each other, and wars affect the lives of all people around the world. How did all this disarray emerge and from where did it come?

Certainly, there is a general reason for all these unforeseen calamities that we face every day. In physical, biological, and social sciences, such conditions are referred to as "nonlinear systems". The characteristic of nonlinear systems is intermittent instability. After long periods of boring and predictable events, these systems suddenly become intensely unpredictable and create severe fluctuations.

What is a nonlinear system?

 If we consider a nonlinear system as a product, we can say that it is a product whose output is not directly proportional to its inputs. We humans are nonlinear systems. If we win a million dollars in a lottery, we become very happy. But if we win four million dollars, we don't become four times happier.

In simpler terms, if obtaining wealth in a chance-based system such as a lottery makes us happy, losing money in gambling, which is also a chance-based system, does not just make us unhappy but completely devastates us. As you can see, our reaction or output in similar situations where money is at stake and we either gain or lose it based on chance is not on the same level.

Nonlinearity is a key element behind the chaos of the deterministic world. If we think of the butterfly effect as the foundation of this system, we can be certain about this matter. How can a small uncertainty grow and make the whole system unpredictable? The butterfly effect explains this phenomenon completely.

Nevertheless, the butterfly effect does not play a role entirely and at all times in chaotic systems. Sometimes, a turbulent system can be predicted for long-term future. But as we get closer to an alternate instability, the butterfly effect can eliminate predictability in a short amount of time. All of these events are the result of the nonlinearity of the system.

Nonlinear Systems and Weather

Weather is a nonlinear chaotic system. In most cases, the weather is uniform and predictable, but sometimes it becomes highly unpredictable and dangerous. In October 1987, Michael Fish, a weather forecaster in Britain, had told people not to worry about strong winds, but those winds turned into the worst storm that southern England had experienced in the past 300 years.

Weather forecasters learned from this experience and found that the creation of a storm like this, also known as the Great Storm, was heavily influenced by the butterfly effect. Therefore, nowadays, 50 different simulations are used in weather forecasting to examine the butterfly effect in various probabilities and be prepared for anything.

When the weather conditions are highly unstable, such as in October 1987, weather predictions also have significant differences with each other. Some predict a storm, while others predict milder weather. The only thing a forecast can do is estimate the probability of a storm happening, not predict its exact occurrence.

Can we as humans influence the likelihood of such oscillations?

The answer to this question is yes. By continuing to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and warming the air, we are rapidly driving our nonlinear weather system towards alternating instability. Perhaps one of the most destructive types of instability is accompanied by a peak point. For example, the destruction of a large ice sheet in the polar region could significantly raise sea levels.

In these circumstances, we cannot reverse the damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is better to stop producing these gases instead of trying to reverse the consequences. We have the ability to reduce the likelihood of these climate instabilities by regulating the emission of greenhouse gases.

What actions are suitable for reducing the likelihood of climate oscillations?

In the 1950s, the idea was raised that by detonating nuclear bombs in certain parts of the atmosphere, the path of destructive storms could be altered. However, there were ambiguities about the impact of these bombs on rain clouds that prevented its implementation.

This unpredictability is not unique to the weather, and even the solar system, which is the most regular system for us, is full of these unexpected events. A French physicist showed over a hundred years ago that there is a considerable probability of planets being thrown out of the solar system or to other parts of it. So we must accept this instability throughout the world.

But it seems that by observing simple rules and issues, we can influence the nonlinear systems of weather patterns and make life on Earth a little easier. Below are some articles that teach solutions for reconciliation with the natural ecosystem.

General Review

Intermittent instabilities are one of the most common features of nonlinear systems in nature and the global community. Overall, it seems that its effects are deeply negative and disrupt human life in a truly bad way. But how can we cope with these instabilities? By following some seemingly simple tips, we can prevent weather and even economic disruptions. So, it's better to start thinking more about the long-term effects of anything we do from today on.